492
FXUS66 KSTO 140946
AFDSTO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
146 AM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Break in active weather today, with cooler high temperatures
and partly sunny skies across the area.
- Second wave of moisture arrives Sunday bringing renewed
Valley/Foothill rain and mountain snow chances through Tuesday
morning; not as impactful as recent system.
- Cooler, wetter weather system will arrive by the middle of next
week bringing widespread precipitation, moderate to heavy
mountain snow, and gusty south winds.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
...Today...
Most of the heavy rain and mountain snow has moved out of the area
this morning, with a few lingering light showers in the area. The
Winter Storm Warning has been shortened, and will now end at 4 AM
this morning as the final snow showers wind down over the Sierra.
Motorists heading into the mountains are urged to still check
road conditions at Quickmap.dot.ca.gov before they travel, though,
as slippery conditions and chain controls may linger.
Nighttime Microphysics satellite imagery is revealing some
fog/misty conditions in portions of the northern Sacramento Valley
this morning as well. A quick look at rain totals across the area
for the past 24 hours reveals modest amounts in the Valley, with
anywhere from 0.75 to 1.50" inches observed. Foothills and
mountains received around 1 to 2" inches of rain. Snow amounts
will be gathered later this morning, but there were periods of
road closures/stopped traffic/chain controls on most of the major
roadways due to accumulating wet snow. Generally, dry and partly
sunny skies will prevail today across interior NorCal as our first
in a series of weather systems move out of the area. Expect to
wake up to some areas of mist/fog near the surface, with high
temperatures eventually reaching the mid 50s to mid 60s in the
Valley and Delta, with upper 30s to 50s in the higher elevations.
Our next shot at precipitation will arrive by Sunday morning as
the second in a series of storms arrives.
...Sunday through Tuesday AM...
The second wave of moisture arrives Sunday morning beginning in
the north and west portions of the CWA. Latest forecast trends
have slightly reduced overall rain/snow totals across the area,
with generally around 0.25 to 1.50" inches of rain, with the
highest totals in the northern Sacramento Valley and foothills and
mountains. Snow levels initially start around 6500-7500 feet
Sunday, then drop to around 5000-6000 feet Monday. An additional 2
to 5" inches above 6000 feet; higher totals along the
peaks/summits. This could bring slippery roads and slow mountain
travel. Periods of breezy southerly winds will also develop Sunday
ahead of the system`s arrival, but will be weaker compared to
Friday (yesterday), with gusts in the Valley around 25 to 35 mph.
Most of the area will see an end to widespread precipitation by
Monday afternoon, with lingering showers in the Valley but the
mountains will continue to see snow showers through early Tuesday
morning.
...Tuesday & Beyond...
Break in activity for most of Tuesday across interior NorCal, then
the third, potentially much cooler system will arrive late Tuesday
night/early Wednesday morning bringing renewed chances for
widespread rain, gusty southerly winds, and mountain snow. Latest
forecast runs have increased rainfall totals and snow totals
across interior NorCal. Current NBM probabilities of at least 12"
inches of snow above 6000 feet are around 70-90%, from Wednesday-
Thursday night. Valley/Foothill rain probabilities of at least 1"
inch are sitting around 50-70%; highest probabilities east of I-5
and into Shasta County. Gusty southerly winds look to develop
ahead of the system`s arrival as well, with latest forecast runs
bringing around 50-70% probabilities of wind gusts reaching at
least 35 mph on Wednesday.
We will continue to monitor trends on this system, as snow levels
may be significantly lower than the previous storms. Forecast runs
continue to bring higher snow amounts and rain totals across the
area, so make sure to keep checking the forecast for updates as we
move through the weekend and into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
General VFR conditions are expected to return for much of the
next 24 hours with dry weather for TAF sites, though brief periods
of MVFR/IFR/LIFR are possible from 12Z to 18Z this morning due to
patchy mist/fog and some clouds. Scattered -SHSN continue through
around 12Z this morning over the Sierra, with areas of fog
developing over the foothills and mountains as precipitation winds
down.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST early this morning for
Lassen Volcanic NP-Sierra (Cal-Tuo) Above 5000 ft-Sierra (El
Dorado-Amador) Above 5000 ft-Sierra (Sierra-Placer) Above 5000
ft.
&&
$$
